Just before Christmas the UK Government published a regulatory map for future shale gas and oil exploration across Britain. This has followed a sustained push to exploit potential shale reserves by the Conservative Party since coming to power in 2010. While some would describe this push as being motivated by a desire to satisfy the financial interests of senior Party members and donors, others insist that shale is a profitable resource which will lower bills and increase energy security. Who knows what to believe?
Nonetheless, I have written previously about the dash for gas being born out of desperation, and that it may turn out to be against our long term financial and energy interests. That said I’m not of the view that it should be banned outright. Instead I would look more favourably on it were it demonstrated to be environmentally safe and economically sustainable. So far there is a noticeable lack of evidence for either.
One of the regular criticisms of the UK Government’s shale plans is that they’re politically motivated. This is said to be the case because the majority of potential fracking sites are located in the so called ‘desolate North’, where the majority of residents loyally vote Labour. The logic being that the Tory party will not face a political penalty for supporting potentially damaging activities in such areas.
Fracking; it looks very simple and clean in this image. The reality is more complex
On the whole this view has gained a degree of traction, I’ve even found myself repeating it. However, the map released late last year (the left most above) casts doubt on that assessment.
In saying this I’m not ignoring the fact that there was always going to be a link between shale locations and traditional Labour seats. As people will know, shale deposits represent only a slight geological variation on the kinds of rocks previously exploited for conventional fossil fuel mining (by this point I’m assuming readers have worked out that I’m not a Geologist. Or even an Earth Scientist, to use the modern (allegedly ‘more sexy’) term that the Rockbashers like to use for themselves). As such it follows that those mining areas, the north of England or the south Wales valleys for instance, were always going to be the first place companies explored. Naturally both the geology and the mines pre-date the Labour Party – turns out time did not begin with Tony Blair!
However, looking at the map above you can see, for the most part, that it’s governed far more by geological boundaries (middle map) than it is by present political incumbencies (right map). In fact one could go so far as to suggest that the mapped zones cover more Tory seats than they do Labour (naturally the Lib Dems don’t have enough seats to make a statistically significant correlation).
Obviously there are some anomalies. The geology does not account for why large sections of Tory heartlands in the Shires fall outside of the exploration zones. However, were it be for political reasons alone, one can’t help but ask why they didn’t also apply to the south, Welsh borders and rural areas of the mid-north?
In saying this I am not attempting to appease what I see to be a deeply questionable energy strategy, instead I’m simply highlighting that not everything has to be about class warfare.
This post was first published on 16th January on A Welshman’s Blog.
